Statistics Show a Slowing Real Estate Market — But Not at Golden Real Estate

The 4½-year-long seller’s market is clearly transitioning into a “balanced” market and may be moving toward a buyer’s market by 2020, judging from statistics garnered from REcolorado, the Denver MLS.

In December, for example, the median days on market for City & County of Denver sales was 20, the highest since Feb. 2014, and the ratio of sold price to listing price was 98.5%, up from 98.3% in November, but otherwise the lowest since Feb. 2012 — nearly seven years ago.

January statistics won’t be available until early February, but a study of the 403 homes sold in the first 21 days of January shows that the median days on market is even higher — 28 days — and that the ratio of sold price to listing price has dropped to 97.2%.

The number of sold listings in December was 783, the lowest for a December since 2011. This compares to more than 1,000 sales in every December from 2014 to 2017. The number of active listings for this December was 1,605, the highest for any December since 2013.

Now let’s look at Jefferson County statistics.

In December the median days on market for Jeffco sales was 24, and the ratio of sold price to listing price was 98.6%. Both stats were the worst (relatively speaking)  since February 2014, nearby five years ago.

As with Denver, a study of the Jefferson County homes sold thus far in January shows that the median days on market will remain above 20 and that the ratio of sold price to listing price will dip even further. With 307 sales thus far and another 308 listings under contract over 20 days, I predict that the number of sold listings will be the same as or higher than January 2018, when 553 Jeffco homes were sold.  The median sold price will continue to climb, though less quickly.

Given these statistics, you can imagine our surprise at how well our own listings have performed this month. 

For example, broker associate Kristi Brunel listed a home on a busy street (usually not a good selling point) for $520,000, which was above what neighborhood comps suggested. She got it under contract for 13% more in four days. There were 60 showings and 13 offers, but there were 20 or more other offers which weren’t submitted once buyers knew how high the bidding had gone. Saturday’s open house, just hours after Friday’s big snow storm, was so busy and with so many cars parked on the street that one neighbor asked Kristi if it was a church function!

I had a similar experience with another listing. I got multiple offers which bid up the home to 7% over its listing price within four days, and the open house was the busiest I can recall. A Golden listing of mine which didn’t sell in December sold readily in January for nearly its listing price, and a $1.1 million listing of mine in downtown Golden sold in less than a week with multiple offers driving the price up by $75,000 following an open house where I needed help to accommodate the flow of buyers. 

So you can understand why I don’t quite know what to make of the current real estate market — except perhaps that Golden Real Estate knows how to sell homes better than other brokerages!

What we do know with certainty is that there are many disappointed buyers who did not win the bidding wars on these Jeffco listings and that homeowners who think they should wait until spring to put their home on the market should consider doing so now — and with us!

As I’ve written in the past, there are multiple reasons why winter is a good time to list a home, but our experience with these few listings is surprising even me. But beware — the reason that the MLS statistics are not as good as our own experience at Golden Real Estate may be that other brokerages are not listing their homes at the right price and not providing the kind of marketing for which Golden Real Estate is famous.

Buyers are definitely getting wiser and not making offers on homes that are overpriced. Give me or one of our broker associates a call and ask us what we consider the right price to list your home. 

Statistics Seem Not to Reflect a Coming Slowdown in the Real Estate Market

By JIM SMITH, Realtor

Because of recent national and regional reports that the real estate market is changing from a seller’s market to a balanced, or even a buyer’s market, I have drilled down into the statistics for real estate activity in Denver and Jefferson County, looking for evidence of that shift. After all, as in politics, all real estate is local, and even reports about Metro Denver’s real estate market don’t necessarily reflect what is happening in each of the metro area’s six counties.

So, are the Denver and Jeffco real estate markets changing from a seller’s market to a balanced or buyer’s market?  The answer appears to be “yes,” as I’ll show below, although the data in the 25-month charts above provide no indication of a coming slowdown. While 25 months might seem like an odd timeframe for a chart, I used it so you could compare this November (on the outer right) with November 2016 (on the outer left) as well as all the months in between.

Two measures of a market’s health are the trends in median sold price and the median days on market. The charts show continued year-over-year increases in the median sold price in both Denver and Jefferson County and only seasonal changes in the days on market. When median days on market are this low — ranging from 5 to 16 days in both Denver and Jefferson County over the past two years — you know it’s a seller’s market.

However, the listings that are currently active or under contract and those which have sold thus far in December suggest that, from a purely mathematical standpoint, 2019 statistics will document a shift in Denver’s and Jeffco’s real estate market.

As I write this on Tuesday, December 11th, there are 1,832 active Denver listings on REcolorado. The median days on market of those listings is 54, more than triple the median days on market for last month’s sales. There are 1,230 Denver listings that are under contract, and their median days on market is 24.  Of the 200 Denver listings which closed between December 1st and 11th, the median days on market was only 20.  Clearly, as those currently active and under contract listings change their status to “sold,” the median days on market will rise significantly by month’s end and into 2019.

The figures for Jefferson County mirror those of Denver. Median days on market for active listings is 42, median days on market for under contract listings is 25, and median days on market for listings sold December 1st to 11th is 19. As with Denver, it’s safe to say that Jeffco’s market has already begun to slow, and statistics will reflect that in coming months. 

If you’re thinking of selling your home, don’t let yourself be blindsided by this evolving market. You can still sell a home quickly in a slowing market, but only if you price it correctly. As I have written before, you can’t underprice a home, because competing offers will drive the price upward. And by pricing your home correctly, you’ll benefit from those competing listings that were not priced appropriately. Call me or another Golden Real Estate agent at 303-302-3636 if you’d like advice on pricing your home to sell.