NAR Economist Lawrence Yun Says ‘The Housing Recession Is Over’

In a July 27th article on realtor.com, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, was quoted as saying, “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over. The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”

“The West—the country’s most expensive region—will see reduced prices, while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small positive increase,” Yun was quoted as saying in the article.

Yun’s analysis was based on June statistics, but I can see some evidence of his statement in my own experience. My newest listing in Lakewood, featured last week for $700,000, went under contract in three days amid competing offers for $720,000, leading to cancelation of the open house scheduled for day 4.

Another listing, a $1,250,000 ranch in north Golden, also went under contract last week for just below its listing price.

The fact remains that the increase in mortgage interest rates has many sellers holding onto their current home even though they’d like to move. If you had a 2.9% mortgage on your current home, you’d want to stay put rather than give it up and buy a replacement home with a 7% mortgage, right? The industry refers to homeowners in that situation as “rate-locked.”

Builders of new homes are benefiting from the low inventory of existing homes for sale. The sale of new homes surged in May and declined in June, but the trend is still upward. Buyers like buying a new home because, in addition to being new, they can usually be purchased without a bidding war.

Yun, of course, is quoting national statistics, but you and I know that all real estate is local, so I created the chart below using the tools available to me on REcolorado, Denver’s MLS, looking only at listings within 18 miles of downtown Denver.

Current inventory compares favorably with previous years in that chart, although pending and closed sales are down significantly. Values are still high, with the price per finished square foot near last July’s high.

Forecasters, me included, were surprised at the strength of the current real estate market.  We thought a true recession was in the cards, but in fact the market remains quite strong. I can only attribute the market’s performance to the large number of buyers still in the market and the continued low unemployment rate.

What will the market be like as we move into fall and winter?  Stay tuned, because I don’t want to venture a guess!

Metro Real Estate Market Exhibits Seasonal Cooling

Starting this month, I am partnering with Megan Aller of First American Title, in providing a statistical analysis of the prior month’s real estate activity in the Denver metro area. Megan is renowned for her diligent and in-depth analysis of the market, so, while this is under my byline, I am really conveying what she has told me.

As the Denver market enters a cooler season, the landscape is undergoing a notable shift with rising inventory and falling demand. This phenomenon, known as retraction, is causing a seasonal decline in prices as the balance between supply and demand evolves.

Recent data reveals a decline in the occurrence of multiple offers. For detached single-family homes, the percentage of properties selling for over asking price dropped by 4.7%, settling at 41.1%. Similarly, attached residences experienced a 2.0% decrease, with 37.4% of homes selling for over asking price.

While attached single-family home prices experienced a minor dip of 0.1%, averaging $480,656, detached single-family home prices rose by 1.7% month over month, reaching an average price of $796,702.

Both attached and detached homes currently have a supply of 1.3 months, indicating limited inventory. However, experts predict supply will likely increase in the coming months.

The shift towards a cooler market creates a favorable environment for prospective buyers. With a decrease in multiple offers and the potential for price adjustments, buyers have an opportunity to make their move in a less competitive market. Whether they are first-time homebuyers or looking to upgrade, the current market conditions present an opening for strategic decision-making.

If you’re interested in learning more about the metro Denver real estate market, my broker associates and I can provide valuable insights tailored to your specific needs. Our contact information is below.

The data in this report covers the following metro area counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and Jefferson. This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist Inc., d/b/a REcolorado. REcolorado does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data from REcolorado may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. All data above is for the month of June 2023.

On the MLS, a Half-Duplex Is No Longer a ‘Single-Family Home’

The single-family home that David Dlugasch listed this week, a half-duplex, will not be found by buyers searching the MLS for single-family homes, thanks to a big change made in January 2020, when our MLS began conforming to a standardized set of property descriptors which all MLSs were expected to adopt.

Under the new system, a duplex must be listed under the “Multi-Family” Sub-Property type, with  “Duplex” under Property Structure. This replaced the earlier system, which had “Single-Family Attached” as well as “Single-Family Detached” as property types.

You can search by address and find the listing, but most people searching for homes are unlikely to include “multi-family” in their search criteria, even though they would love this single-family home if they saw it.

Why Wouldn’t a Listing Agent Want to Maximize the Exposure of His Listings?

Although the average real estate agent barely makes a living and either has a second income source or a high-earning spouse, about 10% of agents earn a lot of money — and want to earn even more.

Myself, I make a very good living, as evidenced by the fact that I’m writing this week’s column while Rita and I are on vacation in Prague, capital of the Czech Republic. (I’ll be home by the time this column appears in print.)

But my business model does not involve doing every single thing I can to maximize my personal income. I get more satisfaction from trying to maximize my service to others, including my clients and the unknown readers of this blog. Since long before I became a Realtor, I lived by a motto that has mistakenly been attributed to Confucius. “Concentrate on giving, and the getting will take care of itself.”

My Denver Post column — what newspapers call an “advertorial” — is evidence of that strategy. As a former newspaper journalist trained on the metro desk of The Washington Post in 1968, I decided at the very beginning of my real estate career in 2003 that I’d spend my marketing dollars on buying newspaper space to publish a helpful real estate column.

It has paid off quite well. Unlike every real estate agent I know, I have never made a cold call or prospected in any way to get buyers and sellers to hire me. (This month, I just realized, is the 20th anniversary of getting my real estate license and starting as a broker associate at the Union Blvd. office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, now called Coldwell Banker Realty for some reason I have yet to learn.)

That column, which also appears in three Jefferson County weekly newspapers, is my sole outreach to potential clients, and every week I get one or more calls from someone who says, in effect, “I’ve been reading your column for many years, knowing the day would come when I’d call you to sell my home. Today’s that day!”

The above is a long-winded way of saying that I’m happy to abide by the Realtor Code of Ethics (and state law) which says I should put clients’ interest ahead of my own. This brings me back to the question posed in this article’s headline.

Last week, members of REcolorado, Denver’s MLS, received an email detailing how easy our MLS has made it to withhold a listing from all syndication, including Zillow, Redfin, and even REcolorado’s own consumer-facing website, www.REcolorado.com.

That email cast its guidance in the context of a seller requesting such limited exposure, but why would any seller give his/her listing agent informed consent to limit the exposure of their home’s listing to only their listing agent’s own website or circle of prospects? I suspect the only reason a listing agent would convince his or her client to approve such a strategy would be to maximize the chance that the agent wouldn’t have to compensate a buyer’s agent, thereby doubling his own commission earnings. That is not what anyone would call putting their clients’ interests ahead of their own.

Sellers Are Helping Buyers to Buy Down High Interest Rate Mortgages

With interest rates staying between 6 and 7 percent, it has become a common practice for buyers to demand and sellers to grant a concession by which the seller pays a fee to the buyer’s lender to get a lower interest rate for the first year or two, after which the buyer can hopefully refinance at a lower rate.

To see how pervasive this trend has become, I compared the statistics on Denver metro area closings over the past 90 days versus before interest rates began rising last year.

During the 90 days prior to this Monday, there were 4,512 closings of residential listings on REcolorado.com in which it was reported that the seller had provided a concession related to buyer’s closing costs. During the first 90 days of 2022, that number was only 2,675.

February Statistics Show Some Stabilization of Metro Denver’s Real Estate Statistics

Below is the “Market Overview” for February as published by the Market Trends Committee of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR). It is for the 11-county “metro” area, which includes Elbert, Gilpin and Park counties.

One statistic omitted from the DMAR infographic is the median days in MLS, which fell dramatically compared to the average days in MLS. Defining metro Denver as a 23-mile radius of downtown Denver (not how DMAR chooses to define it), I find the average days-in-MLS for February to be 47 (up from 46 days in January) and the median days-in-MLS to be 24 (down from 34 days from January).

(Notably, the days-in-MLS statistics for the first several days of March are 39 and 13 respectively. We’ll check back in April to see how those statistics for March end up.)

That’s an important distinction, because what it tells us is that while there continue to be lots of overpriced homes sitting on the MLS, there are now enough right-priced homes on the MLS which are selling quickly to bring down the median days-on-MLS statistic.

This is a lesson which all sellers should take to heart — that if you price your home at or slightly below the market, you will sell your home quickly, but if you put it on the MLS at a hoped-for price that is above the market, it will sit on the MLS for a long time.

As I write this on Monday evening, these are the numbers of active Denver metro listings on www.REcolorado.com listed by days-on-market:

0-7 Days—610

8-14 Days—306

15-31 Days—478

32-60 Days—442

61-90 Days—193

Over 90 Days—743

We agents refer to listings that have been on the MLS over 30 or 60 days as “stale,” and those are good prospects for getting a low-ball offer accepted. Buyers can certainly be confident that they won’t encounter a bidding war for any listing that has been on the market more than a couple weeks — unless there was a recent price reduction. If you want to avoid bidding wars and get a good deal, ask your agent to send you only listings which have been on the MLS over 10 days.

Meanwhile, sellers need to recognize that if they overprice a home and later reduce the price to make it sell, they typically get less than if they had priced the home correctly.

For Jefferson County residents, here is the above analysis as it relates to Jeffco:

These are the numbers of active Jeffco listings on REcolorado by days-on-market:

0-7 Days—150

8-14 Days—62

15-31 Days—92

32-60 Days—82

61-90 Days—25

Over 90 Days—141

Here are the charts adapting that DMAR graphic to Jefferson County:

Have You Wondered About 72Sold? It’s Not Licensed as a Real Estate Brokerage in Colorado

Perhaps, like me, you have wondered about 72Sold, which runs commercials every night on local TV stations, giving the impression that it is a Colorado real estate brokerage, and directing you to www.72Sold.com, which gives the same impression.

In researching this company, the first thing I did was to look on REcolorado.com, the Denver MLS, to see how many listings they have sold. The answer was none, because 72Sold is not a member of the MLS and is not even licensed in Colorado to sell real estate.

So what’s the story? First I asked Marcia Waters, director of the Colorado Division of Real Estate, who confirmed that 72Sold is not licensed in Colorado, and said the division has not received any complaints about them — which makes sense, since one can only file a complaint against a licensed brokerage.

My suspicions about 72Sold were raised further as I scanned the company’s website, which contains numerous testimonials and the following graphic, which has no identification of, or links to, the “five independent studies” cited in it:

To learn more, I posed as a potential seller and requested a valuation on 72Sold’s website, which uses such terminology as “a better way to sell your home.” That sure sounds like a brokerage, doesn’t it?

Registering my name and a home address on their website resulted in a call from a woman who said she was from 72Sold but who, under questioning, said she was actually with Your Castle Realty, a non-Realtor brokerage. So as not to blow my cover, I used the excuse that I only wanted to work with a Realtor, and she offered to have an agent from Keller Williams call me.

Susan Thayer, co-owner with her husband of Keller Williams Action Realty in Castle Rock, was the agent who called me next. I revealed to her that I was actually a Realtor myself writing this real estate column. I explained that posing as a seller on 72Sold’s website was the only way I could find out what was really behind all those TV commercials.

Susan was quite open and helpful and sent me links with background information, including an Inman News article about 72Sold’s partnership with Keller Williams and its many franchises.

Like 72Sold’s website, the Inman story conflated the roles of a lead generating company and a real estate brokerage, reporting, for example, that 72Sold had grown from 10 agents to 426 agents (as of August 2022), when in fact they only have licensed agents in Arizona, where they are a licensed brokerage.  Everywhere else, as I understand it, they have what should be called “referral partners” instead of agents.

What 72Sold does is invest 80% of its referral fee income (according to the Inman story) into more TV advertising in those markets where it has referral partners, and some of that expense is apparently shared by those referral partners, although I didn’t garner any specific numbers.

What 72Sold offers through its referral partners is a strategy of combining a 7-day coming soon period with a Friday-to-Sunday active period during which buyers’ agents may show the home for 15 minutes on Saturday, according to the Inman article. The idea is to create a buyer frenzy and “fear of loss.” With the slowing of the market, that strategy has softened. It sounds great to sellers, however, making the leads generated well worth 72Sold’s referral fee.

Click on the thumbnail below to watch a video from 72Sold’s home page. Judge for yourself whether they are posing as a brokerage in Colorado, where you just watched their TV ad.

PS: It is a violation of the Realtor Code of Ethics for a member to misrepresent himself or his level of success, but neither Greg Hague nor his Arizona brokerage is a member of the National Association of Realtors, and therefore neither is bound to the Code of Ethics.

Fannie Mae Requires Appraisers to Use a Measurement Model for Square Footage Not Used by Realtors

How we measure the gross living area of a home is important, but there is little consistency. Different websites may use different numbers for the same home, primarily because they tend to have only one field for square footage.

Below, I’ll write about Fannie Mae’s new rules for measuring homes, but it’s up to each real estate website operator which number it uses for square footage. For example, the web page that we create for each Golden Real Estate listing has only one square footage field, so I choose to display finished square footage. The MLS has fields to distinguish between finished, unfinished, basement, above-grade, and total square feet, as shown below, and all those fields are uploaded to every consumer website, but I haven’t found any consumer website which displays all those fields.

Zillow is an example of a website which features only the total square footage in each listing, even if half that area is unfinished basement space. It doesn’t show the breakdown of finished vs. unfinished space or basement vs. above-grade space unless you click on a link titled “See more facts and features.”

Trulia, which is owned by Zillow, has a link “See all” which lists “finished area” if you scroll down far enough, but that’s all. I find this ironic, because both Trulia and Zillow provide a ton of information not found on the MLS, yet they downplay or omit the most important detail of all — the breakdown of square footage.

Redfin, which, like Trulia and Zillow, gets the full feed from our MLS, also features only the total square feet and has no link that I could find which displays a breakdown. And, like both Trulia and Zillow, Redfin prominently features “price per square foot,” but that figure is based on the total square feet, which can be really misleading.

Golden Real Estate’s website, like those three, gets its active listings from the MLS, but our display is managed by the MLS, and all listings on our website use the finished square footage number, which is, I believe, the most useful single number to use. But, once again, there’s only one field for displaying square footage.

The MLS has its own consumer-facing website, www.REcolorado.com, where you can search for listings. On that site, the total square footage is featured, but scroll down and you see this very thorough breakdown of square footage:

On other websites, you’d only see 3,166 square feet and $271/sq. ft. for the listing in this example.

The numbers  displayed on the MLS are entered by the listing agent. Our sole obligation in providing them is to indicate the source. It could be from public records, or it could be from a prior appraisal. We could also measure it ourselves, but that is really unlikely. The only requirement is that we disclose the source. The safest choice is public records, but those numbers could be wrong.

Fun fact: Square footage of a home, by whatever standard, is measured from the outside of the exterior walls, not the inside.

Lenders, of course, want to know that the square footage is accurate and consistent, so recently Fannie Mae mandated that all appraisers follow the ANSI (American National Standards Institute) standard, which can result in appraisals which come up with different numbers than in the MLS listing on which the buyer relied.

The ANSI standards don’t allow for space with ceiling heights under 7’ to be included in the gross living area, and the square footage of staircases can only be counted on the level from which the staircase descends. Also, if even part of a level is below grade, the entire level has to be counted as “basement,” which directly conflicts with MLS rules which say the lower level of a bi-level or tri-level home (which is at least partially below grade) can be counted as above-grade square footage.

Complicating matters, appraisers must measure properties using the ANSI standards, but they have no choice but to rely on MLS measurements for the comps they cite in an appraisal, which were surely not done to ANSI standards. The technical term for this is “apples and oranges…”

There are three different square footage numbers for every MLS listing, and here is a quick tutorial on REcolorado’s rules for measuring square footage.

Above-Grade square footage used to be called “Main” square footage. As the new name suggests, it does not include basement square footage.  But that begs the question, “what is a basement?”  In a split-level home, the lower level, which is often below grade, is included in the “above-grade” square footage, since there is frequently a basement below that level. In a “raised ranch” home, the lower level is included in “above-grade” square footage for the same reason. (A “raised ranch” is defined as a home where you have to climb a flight of stairs to get to the “main” level. The “main” level is defined as the level containing the kitchen.) 

Finished square footage includes all the finished square feet, whether in the basement or above-grade. If the basement is unfinished (or there is no basement), this number will be the same as the “Above Grade” number.

Total square footage is what the name suggests, whether finished or unfinished.

All three of these numbers will be different when a listing has a partially finished basement.

Experts Differ on What 2023 Will Bring in Terms of the Real Estate and Mortgage Markets

Real estate and mortgage professionals are coming to grips with how the market changed in 2022, but they’re holding back on predictions for the market in 2023.

On the national level, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, predicts home prices will remain stable and the sales of existing homes will decline by 6.8%. He identified ten markets that will outperform other metro areas, and all ten of them are in the southeast.

“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun said.

Here in the Denver market, the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) issues a monthly market trends report. In its latest report, it pointed out that while there is a steady month-over-month decline in the average sold price, the year-over-year sold prices remain higher.

“Without a doubt, the Denver Metro housing market is changing, but the question on everyone’s mind is how long this change will last and what to expect next year,” commented Libby Levinson-Katz, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and a metro Denver Realtor®. “Most of the answers are tied directly to when we will see relief from increasing mortgage rates that have more than doubled since January… While we expect to see the Denver real estate market continue to change through 2023 due to interest rates and inventory woes, it has continued to show strength and stability.” 

As I highlighted above, a lot depends on the direction of mortgage rates, and predictions of where rates are headed are few and varied, because there are so many factors.

For example, will the Federal Reserve’s increases in the Fed Funds rate continue, and for how long? Will it cause a recession? Will unemployment increase and inflation abate?  What’s the future of the war in Ukraine and its impact on the US and world economy? What will energy cost in 2023?

Personally, I have no predictions to offer. What I know for sure is that people will still want to sell, and there will always be buyers ready to buy. We continue to see new listings come on the market. As always, some listings will be priced wisely and will sell quickly, but most will be overpriced and will sit on the market, slowly reducing their prices until they sell, expire, or are withdrawn from the MLS.

There may even be bidding wars on homes that are priced right. For example, I just sold a home in Applewood which we priced at $895,000 and sold to one of three bidders within a week for over $900,000. But we’re not perfect. Other listings have languished on the market and only sold once we reduced the price sufficiently to attract a buyer.

The New Sellers Property Disclosure Is a Great Improvement

Every few years, the Division of Real Estate releases a revised Sellers Property Disclosure to be used by real estate brokers. A forms committee suggests revisions which then must be approved by the Colorado Real Estate Commission.

I wasn’t a big fan of the version which was released in 2018, but I’m a big fan of the one which is mandatory beginning on January 1, 2023. There are disclosures for each type of property. In this blog post, I’ll only talk about changes to the one for residential listings. Here’s a link to it, which you will need to download to scroll through it.

Some of the changes are subtle — for example, the seller is told to disclosure adverse materials facts instead of defects. That makes sense, since there was no definition of “defect” in the 2018 version.

Other changes are more substantive. For example, instead of just asking if the property is in an HOA, it asks for the name of the association(s) and contact information for each. If the neighborhood has cluster mailboxes, it asks for the location and number of the mailbox.

At the top of the form, it asks when the seller acquired the property, not only the year it was built as in the 2018 form. It also asks the seller to attach any reports, receipts or other documents “you believe necessary for the information you provide to be complete.” There was no such request in the prior version.

The seller is asked whether the home is subject to deed restrictions or affordable housing restrictions, and whether it is in a historic district. This is new.

Another sign of the times is that instead of asking if there is or has been tobacco smoke, it refers only to “smoking” and adds in parentheses “including in garages, unfinished space, or detached buildings.”

Under “Access and Parking,” the form asks if there are any limitations on parking or access due to size, number and type of vehicles. Instead of asking if there are “any access problems,” it asks the broader question of whether there are “access problems, issues or concerns.” Those three words are used elsewhere to expand on the question of “problems.”

In the section on “Use, zoning and legal issues,” instead of asking simply whether any additions or alterations have been made, it specifies whether they were made with a building permit and without a building permit, including “non-aesthetic alterations,” which is undefined. It also asks whether the property has been used for short-term rentals in the past year and whether there are “grandfathered conditions or uses.”

Under “Sewer,” the form asks for the name of the sewer service provider, the date of the last sewer scope, the date of the last septic use permit, inspection, and pumping — all useful information.

In the “Water” section, the form asks for the location of the water shutoff.  If there’s a well, it asks the date of the last inspection and service.  It asks the gallons per minute (GPM) of the well as of a specified date, and it asks the size in gallons of any cistern. Lastly, it asks whether the seller purchased any supplemental water in the last two years — an indication of the well’s adequacy.

The form asks the seller to identify the electricity, cable TV and internet service providers.

The instructor of the class I took regarding these new contracts and disclosures reminded us that the sellers property disclosure is to be accurate as of the date the home goes under contract. Therefore, if the property goes under contract after Dec. 31, 2022, this new form must be completed by the seller, but it does not need to be replaced if the listing is already pending but does not close until 2023.

That led me to adopt a new “best practice” which I’ll share here with my fellow listing agents. Instead of having the seller complete and sign the sellers property disclosure when I list the home, my practice henceforth will be to have the seller complete the document at the time of listing but to review and sign it only after going under contract with a buyer, thereby assuring that it is accurate as of the purchase contract date, as stated on the disclosure.