Denver’s Realtor Association Reports That October Listings & Sales Broke 22 Records

     The Denver Metro Realtor Association (DMAR) has just released a report by its Market Trends Committee which noted that 22 different records were broken during October. Below is their summary, which is based on statistics from REcolorado, the Denver MLS. These statistics are for the entire MLS which lists property statewide but primarily the Denver metro area. Below is my own analysis limited to the Jeffco statistics from the same MLS.

ACTIVE LISTINGS

     (All Residential) 4,821 represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was 6,731 in 2016.

     (Detached) 2,643 represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was 4,720 in 2017.

CLOSE PRICE — MEDIAN

(All Residential) $475,000 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $460,000 recorded in July, August and September of this year.

(Detached) $519,900 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $510,000 in September of this year.

(Attached) $339,425 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $335,000 in September of this year.

CLOSE PRICE — AVERAGE 

(All Residential) $561,999 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $540,890 recorded in July 2020.

(Detached) $625,100 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $602,264 in August 2020.

(Attached) $393,733 represents the highest amount on record. The previous record was $384,902 in September 2020.

DAYS IN MLS — MEDIAN

(All Residential) 6 days represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was in 2015 of 10 days.

(Detached) 6 days represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was in 2015 of 11 days.

DAYS IN MLS — AVERAGE

(All Residential) 24 days represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was in 2015 of 25 days.

(Detached) 23 days represents the lowest October on record. The previous low for October was in 2015 of 27 days.

NEW LISTINGS

(Attached) 2,022 represents the highest October on record. The previous high for October was 1,657 in 2019.

CLOSED LISTINGS

(All Residential) 5,984 closed transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high for October was 5,144 in 2019.

(Detached) 4,352 closed transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high was 3,709 in 2019.

(Attached) 1,639 closed transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high was 1,461 in 2017.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

(All Residential) 0.81 months represents the lowest number on record. The previous record low was 0.91 months of inventory in September 2020.

(Detached) 0.61 months represents the lowest amount on record. The previous record was 0.72 months of inventory in September 2020.

PENDING

(All Residential) 6,141 pending transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high for October was 6,062 in 2017.

(Detached) 4,337 pending transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high was 4,330 in 2017.

(Attached) 1,804 pending transactions represent the highest October on record. The previous high was 1,732 in 2017.

SALES VOLUME

(All Residential) $3,363,002,016 sales volume represents the highest October on record. The previous high for October was $2,487,936,752 in 2019. July 2020 holds the all-time record of $3,965,805,480.

Of particular interest, in my opinion, is the difference between the median and average “Days in MLS.” While half the listings went under contract in 6 days or less, the average was 23 or 24 days. That  gap is a reflection of how many homes are overpriced and linger on the market a long time, raising the average DIM when they finally go under contract. A search of currently pending MLS listings shows that 983 of them were “Active” for 100 days or longer before finally going under contract. Compare that to 4,097 listings that went under contract in 1 to 6 days.

Statistics Show a Slowing Real Estate Market — But Not at Golden Real Estate

The 4½-year-long seller’s market is clearly transitioning into a “balanced” market and may be moving toward a buyer’s market by 2020, judging from statistics garnered from REcolorado, the Denver MLS.

In December, for example, the median days on market for City & County of Denver sales was 20, the highest since Feb. 2014, and the ratio of sold price to listing price was 98.5%, up from 98.3% in November, but otherwise the lowest since Feb. 2012 — nearly seven years ago.

January statistics won’t be available until early February, but a study of the 403 homes sold in the first 21 days of January shows that the median days on market is even higher — 28 days — and that the ratio of sold price to listing price has dropped to 97.2%.

The number of sold listings in December was 783, the lowest for a December since 2011. This compares to more than 1,000 sales in every December from 2014 to 2017. The number of active listings for this December was 1,605, the highest for any December since 2013.

Now let’s look at Jefferson County statistics.

In December the median days on market for Jeffco sales was 24, and the ratio of sold price to listing price was 98.6%. Both stats were the worst (relatively speaking)  since February 2014, nearby five years ago.

As with Denver, a study of the Jefferson County homes sold thus far in January shows that the median days on market will remain above 20 and that the ratio of sold price to listing price will dip even further. With 307 sales thus far and another 308 listings under contract over 20 days, I predict that the number of sold listings will be the same as or higher than January 2018, when 553 Jeffco homes were sold.  The median sold price will continue to climb, though less quickly.

Given these statistics, you can imagine our surprise at how well our own listings have performed this month. 

For example, broker associate Kristi Brunel listed a home on a busy street (usually not a good selling point) for $520,000, which was above what neighborhood comps suggested. She got it under contract for 13% more in four days. There were 60 showings and 13 offers, but there were 20 or more other offers which weren’t submitted once buyers knew how high the bidding had gone. Saturday’s open house, just hours after Friday’s big snow storm, was so busy and with so many cars parked on the street that one neighbor asked Kristi if it was a church function!

I had a similar experience with another listing. I got multiple offers which bid up the home to 7% over its listing price within four days, and the open house was the busiest I can recall. A Golden listing of mine which didn’t sell in December sold readily in January for nearly its listing price, and a $1.1 million listing of mine in downtown Golden sold in less than a week with multiple offers driving the price up by $75,000 following an open house where I needed help to accommodate the flow of buyers. 

So you can understand why I don’t quite know what to make of the current real estate market — except perhaps that Golden Real Estate knows how to sell homes better than other brokerages!

What we do know with certainty is that there are many disappointed buyers who did not win the bidding wars on these Jeffco listings and that homeowners who think they should wait until spring to put their home on the market should consider doing so now — and with us!

As I’ve written in the past, there are multiple reasons why winter is a good time to list a home, but our experience with these few listings is surprising even me. But beware — the reason that the MLS statistics are not as good as our own experience at Golden Real Estate may be that other brokerages are not listing their homes at the right price and not providing the kind of marketing for which Golden Real Estate is famous.

Buyers are definitely getting wiser and not making offers on homes that are overpriced. Give me or one of our broker associates a call and ask us what we consider the right price to list your home.