We Realtors have noticed a general slowing of the real estate market over these summer months, so I’m a little surprised that the statistics don’t reflect any significant slowing. The chart below is an example.
Even while the economy as a whole has shown signs of an impending recession through traditional leading indicators, and while showings are down and we’ve seen more price reductions recently, homes continue to sell, and sold prices are not yet going down significantly.
Median sold prices progressed through the $300,000s starting in May 2015, passing $400,000 in April 2018, fell back into the 300s from September 2018 through February 2019, then peaked at $421,000 this past May. They have stayed around that range since June, falling only to $418,000 in August.
Meanwhile, real estate trade publications and websites have featured numerous articles warning of an impending recession, which is causing buyers to hold off on making offers. Last Thursday, NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, was quoted as saying, “Super-low mortgage rates have not yet consistently pulled buyers back into the market. Economic uncertainty is no doubt holding back some potential demand, but what is desperately needed is more supply of moderately priced homes.” Yun predicted the low rates to continue through the end of the year, but also predicted that the sale of existing homes will not increase. He predicts home prices will rise by 3% in 2020.
Also last week, realtor.com released a survey of 755 home buyers, 51% of whom said they expect a recession this year or next year, and 56% of whom said that if a recession does occur they would delay their home search until the economy improves.
Three days earlier, realtor.com quoted its senior economist, George Ratiu, as saying, “This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one. I don’t think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008…. The housing market is in a better position.” The biggest wildcard is probably the President’s back-and-forth on a trade war with China and the rest of the world, and no economist (or presidential advisor) can predict that.
Realtor.com went on to say, “Aspiring buyers hoping that home prices will crash, like they did during the Great Recession, are likely in for a rude awakening. There simply aren’t enough homes being built to satisfy the hordes of buyers. There isn’t likely to be a drop-off in demand anytime soon.”
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