Jim Smith's Blog

By JIM SMITH

Prompted by last week’s election results and the firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, I’m taking a break once again from writing about real estate to write about politics. But my intention is to be more educational than partisan. Once again, as in my June 26th column, I am speaking only for myself and not for Golden Real Estate or its wonderful — and largely apolitical — broker associates.

As a professional journalist myself (trained at the Washington Post during the turbulent summer of 1968) and educated about the Soviet Union in boarding school as a student of the Russian language, I know something about what led up to the 2016 election that I don’t feel has been adequately conveyed by the media.

In addition to learning the Russian language from my prep school teacher, a Dutchman, I also learned about how the Soviets used information to control their own population, and how they used it to influence people of other nations. My education even included subscribing to the Soviet newspaper Izvestia, which probably put me on a CIA watch list back in the 1960s.  I also traveled to the Soviet Union in 1978 as a tourist and again in the 1980s three times as part of “citizen diplomacy” groups sponsored by the Center for Soviet-American Dialogue in Bellingham, Washington. After the fall of the Soviet Union, I made one additional visit to Russia, this time as a tourist, to Vladivostok, the Pacific naval port which is also the terminus of the famed Trans-Siberian Railroad.

From these and other experiences, I learned about the KGB, in which Vladimir Putin served with distinction, leading to his selection to succeed Boris Yeltsin as President of Russia. I’m speaking up now, because, unless you watched the excellent 2-part series “Putin’s Revenge” on the PBS program Frontline (Google it), you may not fully comprehend how the Russians impacted the 2016 election or recognize the activities they continue to engage in today.

I never worried that Russians colluded with the Trump campaign or tried to hack actual voting, because I knew that their tactic is to manipulate minds. It was the Russians who invented the terms “disinformation” and “kompromat” (compromising material).  I learned those terms in Russian class in the 1960s.

The widespread adoption of social media, such as Facebook, supercharged the Russians’ ability to influence “low information voters” — voters who aren’t well enough informed to detect fake stories intended to influence their beliefs and voting behavior.

The Frontline program showed how Russia’s Internet Research Agency has used social media to fire up both sides of any issue which has the potential of creating social and political division in America. They would seize on issues and events that were already dividing America, such as the white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, and create social media posts both promoting and attacking what was happening.

Think about any event that happened in the past several years — such as the killings of blacks by white police officers, but also anything that would stir up the far right and/or liberals — and you can be sure that some of the social media postings appealing to each extreme were created by Russians working in the St. Petersburg, Russia, office of the Internet Research Agency.  Such postings then triggered other events — think mass casualty events — which in turn were exploited using additional postings. It’s a never-ending vicious circle. The Frontline program gave examples.

America is not the only target of Russia’s meddling with public perceptions and opinions. Russians are even more keen on breaking up the European Union and NATO.  Without a doubt, they did the same kind of meddling in European countries to stir up, for example, division over the influx of Syrian refugees.

The Brexit vote in England was probably influenced by a Russian disinformation campaign in that country.  And that makes sense, because what would Russia like more, given Putin’s commitment to making Russia great again, than to see the European Union weakened? Russia’s Internet Research Agency is probably at work stirring up nationalist feelings in every European country. Promotion of nationalism in America also serves Russia’s interest because it serves to weaken NATO and draw us out of other international agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The bottom line, as I see it so clearly, is that President Trump has served as a useful tool — without actual “collusion” — for the aggrandizement of the new Russia under Vladimir Putin. And everything that Trump does to further divide Americans against each other, whether promoted or not by the Internet Research Agency, serves to weaken the United States’ position in the world, which, almost by definition, strengthens Russia’s position in the world.

In one of my “citizen diplomat” trips to the Soviet Union, I was struck by the fact that attractive young women were inexplicably introduced into some of the social events for our largely male delegation. When I heard about the “dossier” with compromising videos of Donald Trump the businessman with prostitutes — for whom I’d wager he did not pay — I suspected immediately that it was true. This and other “kompromat” could serve to keep our President from doing anything adverse to the Russian government.

It doesn’t matter whether the campaign to weaken the First Amendment by creating mistrust of mainstream media with the “fake news” label is inspired or promoted by the Russians. Trump is doing a good enough job at that, and it does indeed weaken our society and ultimately our standing in the world, which must warm the hearts of our adversaries. The trade war with our allies and other countries — except Russia, it should be noted — can’t hurt in that respect, either.

Ultimately, I have great faith in America, and I am heartened that one house of Congress will soon be under Democratic control, providing a check on the Republican Senate and the Trump administration. A crucial role of Congress is to provide oversight of every department and agency and to hold the administration accountable — something that the Republican Congress has declined to do lest it impact their individual political futures. Impeachment of President Trump is not necessary, however deserved it might be on constitutional grounds. It is sufficient just to have one house of Congress holding the rest of our government accountable for its actions.

Changing topics, it is common knowledge that more than 80% of the tax breaks in the Trump tax bill went to the very rich, with some relief to the middle class thrown in to garner popular support. Overlooked, however, is the impact on the non-profit sector. I’m concerned that Americans will donate less money to worthy charities as we approach the holiday season because of the doubling of the standard deduction. That one provision takes away the tax advantage of supporting charitable causes for a large number of taxpayers, but it is not being discussed.

I’m not letting it affect my own giving, but I worry that it could affect others’ giving, and I’m looking forward to some entity doing a statistical analysis of the tax bill’s effect on charitable giving this year and next.

 

Perhaps I’m showing my age, but I just don’t understand why some people choose to communicate by Facebook Messenger instead of email. I get emails that so-and-so has sent me a message on Facebook, and I have to login to read it.

Wouldn’t it make more sense — and be more considerate — to send the message in an email?  Someone please explain this to me!

While on the topic of email, I find Windows’ default typeface (10-pt. Calibri) hard-to-read. I have changed that default to readable 12-pt. Georgia.

If you use Outlook, you can change your email defaults at File>Options>Mail>Stationery and Fonts.

 

Although I’ve written on this topic before, it certainly bears repeating. If you are a senior citizen living in a home you own — perhaps free and clear — know that you are the target of some less-than-honest speculators.

I was reminded of this risk when a friend who does home health care for seniors visited me last week. She recounted how one of her clients keeps getting phone calls and letters from people offering to buy her home “as is, for cash, with no real estate commissions to pay.” My friend fears that this elderly widow may be taken in by an offer to sell her house for less than it’s really worth.

This fear is understandable because, to a trusting and unwary senior, the pitch can be appealing.  Unfortunately, it’s almost certain that any such offer is based on an expectation of buying at a bargain price and selling for much more. Such people only want to buy your home because they can flip it quickly for its real value. They count on you not knowing your home’s true value.

Many senior citizens who receive such solicitations don’t have the internet access or computer skills to perform even a rudimentary value check on their home. The speculators behind such solicitations know this. 

Let’s say you purchased your home decades ago for $30,000 or less. An offer of 10 times that amount might be very appealing.  But what if your home is actually worth far more than that?  Imagine if you sold your home to someone for $300,000 only to discover later that he sold it quickly for $400,000 or more without making a single improvement?   Would you feel short-changed?  You probably would – and rightfully so.

You’ve probably read stories or seen television coverage of young women who marry, or at least befriend, very elderly men, investing a decade or less of their young lives in order to inherit a lifetime’s accumulation of wealth upon their “loved one’s” death. Even some paid caregivers, who have ostensibly dedicated their lives to caring for the elderly, have been known to put forth a loving and compassionate front, only to manipulate their charge in such a way as to gain access to his lifetime accumulation of wealth.   

A few years ago, I was asked by a surviving sibling to sell her deceased brother’s home, only to discover that her brother, who suffered from dementia, had been convinced by his caregiver to add her to the title of not only his home, but also his car and his bank accounts. Sadly, the sister had no legal recourse – although she fought mightily – and was ultimately forced to take the home off the market, whereupon the erstwhile caregiver promptly listed and sold the home, pocketing the proceeds. She had already drained the bank accounts.

If you are a senior, it’s important that you have a clear understanding of this issue. Get your relatives and heirs involved before you respond to any solicitation you receive. If you don’t have relatives or heirs, try reaching out to  Colorado Housing Connect at 844-926-6632 or Mpowered at 303-233-2773. If their counselors can’t provide the advice or help you need in this regard, feel free to call me, because I will be continuing to research this topic after the deadline for submitting this column to YourHub.

If the solicitation involves real estate, reach out to me or to a real estate professional you believe you can trust. If I’m not the best Realtor to help you, I’ll refer you to one who is.  A good real estate professional can determine pretty quickly whether the offer is in line with the market or if someone is trying to con you into selling your home for less than its real-world value.  At a minimum, if you decide to participate in a private, off-market sale of your home, let me or that other trusted Realtor provide you with honest, professional representation.

An example of that occurred just last week, when a reader asked me to assist him in selling his home for $275,000. I advised him, after performing a quick value check, that he could easily get $350,000 for his home. He told me that he and his wife were okay with getting less than full value because they were happy to help a friend. I sensed that this couple was of sound mind and not being scammed, so I agreed to handle the sale as a transaction broker for a nominal fee.

I’m glad this couple called me and that I was able to serve them.  Their situation, along with the caregiver scenario above, was the inspiration for this week’s column.  I fear that far too many of our elderly neighbors are being conned or cheated out of a significant portion of the value of their homes, and I want to do my part to minimize the damage inflicted upon them.

As an aside, if you are a senior considering the option of selling your home and moving into a senior community, the choices can be as confusing as they are plentiful. Any Realtor can help you sell your home, but when it comes to choosing the best senior community, we like to refer seniors to a woman who has made it her career to learn about all such communities in the metro area and can help you select the best one for you.

Call me at 303-525-1851 to arrange a meeting that includes you, that woman, and myself or one of our two broker associates who earned the Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES) designation through extensive training in the real estate needs and concerns of seniors.

 

 

[This column appeared only in the Denver edition of YourHub.]

As the weather turns colder, the real estate market can actually get hotter for sellers. However, since few sellers are aware of this dynamic, let me explain.

The internet has changed the way home buyers shop, making the residential real estate market far less seasonal than it used to be. In the past, buyers would tell an agent what they’re looking for and wait to see what the agent turned up.  Those days are behind us.  Buyers now have a variety of tools by which they can perform a home search online, contacting their agent as they identify properties they’d like to see. Consumer-facing real estate websites also offer email alerts based on geography, price and other criteria.

A hybrid option, made possible by MLS improvements over the years, is for the buyer’s agent to set up an email alert within the MLS. This option has the advantage of the search being far more specific, since agents can search every MLS field, not just location, price range, bed/baths and a few other fields.  Buyers can choose to receive their MLS alerts monthly, daily or even as soon as a new listing is entered on the MLS by the listing agent.  When a buyer receives an alert on a home that checks enough of their boxes, he or she can call their agent and request a showing.

While a buyer might do less active searching on the internet as winter sets in, the MLS alerts keep coming on their own.  This allows a buyer to respond quickly should the “perfect” home hit the market.  (If you haven’t asked your agent to set up such an MLS alert, ask him – or me. It’s a free service to us and you and takes little time to set up.)

Experience has shown me that, if a buyer were to get an MLS alert the day before Christmas with a new listing that sounds perfect, he or she would pick up the phone to wish his agent “Merry Christmas… and by the way, did you see that new listing?  When can I see it?”

What this means for sellers is that you shouldn’t withhold your home from the market just because winter’s approaching. Don’t think that spring and summer are the “selling season.”  Homes sell year round more than in earlier times, and, because many sellers aren’t aware of that and wait for spring, the opportunity for your home to get more attention increases. Put your home on the market in the depths of winter and if you’ve priced it right (not too high), you’ll be amazed at how many showings you will have and how quickly it will sell. Why? Because there’s little else out there!

My own research shows that homes take longer to sell in December and January than in June and July — almost double — but median days on market have stayed under 20 through every winter since 2014. That’s still a very good environment for selling a house, and the showings you get in  mid-winter are higher quality. People who are house hunting in the winter are, for the most part, serious buyers and not “lookie-loos.”

Yes, families with young children might prefer to move during summer vacation, but they are not the majority of home buyers anymore. Consider these other buyers: baby boomers looking to downsize, millennials looking to start a family, and employees facing mid-winter job relocations.

Seniors facing a knee or hip replacement six months from now want to sell their 2-story home and buy a   ranch-style home with no stairs without waiting for spring. Ditto for women who are three months pregnant. They want to move now into a home with more bedrooms, not wait until they’re eight months pregnant or until after the baby is born.

Yes, the market is slowing, but we’ll continue to see quick sales with multiple offers on homes that are priced properly this winter, just as we did last winter. If you fail to price your home right, you’ll think I misled you, as your home sits on the market for weeks or months with few showings and no offers. I’ve written columns on how to price a home properly in the past. Find them at www.JimSmithColumns.com, or call for a free consultation with me or one of our nine excellent agents.

It’s all about supply and demand. There are just as many buyers in the winter, but there are far fewer listings to choose from, which makes it a great time to put your home on the market. Some of those buyers tried all summer to buy a home and lost out to other bidders. They are not going to stop looking just because the days are getting colder and shorter.

[This column appeared only in the Jefferson County editions of YourHub and in four Jeffco weekly newspapers.]

If you haven’t already mailed in your ballot, consider this tax giveaway to Jefferson County’s biggest businesses by our current Board of County Commissioners (BCC).  By a vote of 2-to-1, with the lone Democratic commissioner opposing it, the BCC voted to eliminate the county portion of the Business Personal Property Tax (or BPPT). Depending on where in the county a business is located, this represents a 10 to 20 percent reduction in the total mill levy that is applied to business personal property.

What is “business personal property”? It’s the equipment and other non-real estate owned by businesses. Utilities like Xcel Energy pay the bulk of this tax on such items as generating equipment and high-tension power lines. In our case, the tax applies to the current (depreciated) value of the copy machines, solar panels, and office furniture owned by our business. If you have a home business, the tax applies to your business equipment and furniture, although the first $7,700 of such value is exempt. This means that small businesses pay little or no tax – although it is a headache to fill out the declaration.

I do agree that this tax is an annoyance and could discourage businesses from relocating to Colorado — if they are aware of it ahead of time, which I wasn’t when I moved a company from New York City to Denver in 1991. We were shocked to receive a property tax bill for the equipment and furniture we brought with us.  (New York City has high taxes, but not a business personal property tax.)  I have learned that the BPPT is a big contributor to the revenue of local tax districts, big and small, around the state. These include fire districts, school districts, parks and recreation districts, counties and municipalities — the exact same tax jurisdictions that benefit from real estate taxes, because it’s from the same set of mill levies. Now that Jefferson County has eliminated that source of revenue, one might reasonably ask how the county will make up that lost revenue.

Although this tax is not part of the State’s revenue stream, only the State can amend or abolish it. Thus far, because the BPPT is a major component of local jurisdictions’ income, the General Assembly has only been willing to increase the exemption noted above, which benefits smaller businesses but maintains the tax as a source of revenue from big businesses.

Just as with Trump’s federal tax cut, the BPPT cut was put forth as primarily benefiting smaller taxpayers, which is simply not true.  What prompted me to devote this week’s column to this subject, however, was that the document used by the County Commissioners to claim the cut primarily benefits small businesses includes a chart showing exactly the opposite!  Above is the top half of that one-page document.

Only Commissioner Casey Tighe seemed to recognize that the document disproves its own headline and that the tax cut would primarily benefit larger taxpayers, so he voted against it.

The first line under the headline is accurate. The information in the next one is not, as the chart that makes up the rest of the one-page document clearly shows. Instead of stating that “68% of the BPPT revenue[s] are from schedules under $100,000,” it should have read, “53% of BPPT revenue is from tax schedules over $10,000.”

If Lesley Dahlkemper, a Democrat well-known from her tenure on the Jeffco School Board, defeats the Republican commissioner who is up for election this year, the BCC will be controlled by Democrats. Then I hope the Board will reverse this tax giveaway and do something else that the Republican-controlled Board wouldn’t do, which is to put on next year’s ballot a referendum to change the Board of County Commissioners from a 3-member board to a 5-member board. A 5-member board, with commissioners elected by district, would be a great improvement over the current 3-member board, all of whom are elected at large. And if more locally-focused representation isn’t reason enough for the change, consider that the state’s Open Meetings Law makes it illegal for any two commissioners (because they would constitute a quorum) to meet privately without that meeting being announced in advance and opened to the public.

 

When calculating the cost of selling one’s home, commissions, title insurance and other closing costs are typically at the forefront of sellers’ thinking, perhaps overlooking the cost of the move itself, which can cost thousands of dollars.

Buyers, on the other hand, happy that the seller is paying for the commissions and title policy, tend to focus on their loan costs, again overlooking at first the cost of moving.

Although there surely are positive reviews of moving companies, mostly we hear the horror stories, such as a recent one from a client of mine who moved from Arvada to Connecticut.  In her case, the moving company miscalculated what would fit in the moving trailer they’d assigned to the job (it also contained other clients’ furniture), so they didn’t put all her belongings in the original trailer (without telling her until arrival), and were unable to tell her when the remainder of her belongings might arrive!

Understandably, movers want to combine loads of different customers moving in the same direction. But as the example above demonstrates, the process can disappoint (and even anger) the customer.

Perhaps you or a friend had a similarly unpleasant experience – it happens all too often.

As for myself, I consider frequent moving an occupational hazard of being a real estate agent, since I am likely to tell my wife about a great home I just showed. Since getting married in 2004, Rita and I have moved three times — not counting our dual moves into the home we bought prior to our wedding.

Fortunately, I took delivery of our first moving truck in early 2004, so none of those moves required hiring a professional moving company. My long-time handyman and I did all the moving using that truck.

Over 90% of our clients have been able to take advantage of our free moving trucks for their in-state moves.  This coming week, one of my sellers is even taking our truck to the Western Slope for a full week, paying only for the gas used. But what are the options for people who can’t take advantage of our trucks?

The most obvious, of course, is to hire a professional moving company. For interstate moves, a sales representative will come to your house and estimate the weight of the items you want to move.  Your final cost will depend on the actual weight, which could result in an unpleasant surprise. You will be charged by the hour for the workers who will be loading and unloading the truck, and that could be pretty expensive, especially if you also want them to do the packing. These workers should be bonded (insured against damage and loss), although the claims process can be discouraging and lengthy. You will also pay for boxes and packing materials.  Figure on paying at least 4-figures, even for a local move.

Most full-service moving companies are local franchises of a larger national moving company. The logistics of long-distance combined loads is challenging, and requires careful coordination. Local moves, however, are completed within the franchise and in a single truck, which helps to ensure quick service through the use of their own workers and trucks. The quotes I got were typically $120/hour for two men and a truck, plus $1 or so per mile, charged from their depot back to their depot, not just from your current home to your new home.

A second option is one where you handle the loading and unloading. There are probably several vendors for this type of service, but the company with which I’m most familiar is   U-Pack (www.upack.com). They’ll deliver a trailer or container to your current home, give you three days to load it, then pick it up and deliver it to your new home three to five business days later, where you’ll have another 3 days to unload it.

Speaking of containers, PODS (www.pods.com) is a brand of a similar type of service, but one that allows you to take more time to load.  Once you’re finished loading, you lock the container and PODS will pick it up and store it until you tell them where to deliver it.  I like this approach because it allows you to de-clutter your home for better staging by removing much of what you know you’ll be moving anyway. Most people use their garage for this de-cluttering process, but your garage shows better when it, too, is de-cluttered.

U-Pack and U-Haul offer services similar to PODS, and there are probably other vendors out there as well.

As a side note, you might want to use PODS when you aren’t actually moving, such as to get furniture out of your house during renovations. Trucks can also be used for that purpose. U-Haul makes its money on miles traveled — about $1 per mile. Their daily rate of $19.95 is a cheap storage solution if you just need temporary storage and have a place to park the truck for several days. When we carpeted our office (which had a tile floor), we moved all our office furniture into a truck for 3 days, then back into the office after the work was completed.

That brings up option #3, which is renting a truck and doing all the moving yourself. As I said, you’ll pay $1 per mile plus the cost of gasoline (figure 30 cents/mile). U-Haul’s website (http://www.uhaul.com) makes it easy to estimate the cost of local or one-way moving without actually making a reservation or giving your name and contact info. I tried to get estimates from professional moving companies but had to give my phone number and email address and was bombarded with sales calls!  The only website I found with good consumer-friendly info was http://www.relocation.com.

Your final and best option if you sell or buy your home using Golden Real Estate and are moving within Colorado is to take advantage of our free moving trucks. We also provide free moving boxes and packing materials, even if you don’t use our trucks, such as for a move out of state. You pay only for our truck’s gas. We can connect you with a driver and movers for $20 to $25 per man-hour. They are unbonded and not Golden Real Estate employees, so any agreement you have is with them, but the feedback we’ve received indicates that they are hard-working and trustworthy.  Because they’re not bonded, you will want to supervise them yourselves and perhaps move fragile items and valuables in your own vehicle.

Note: When you both buy and sell locally using Golden Real Estate, earning us a commission on both transactions, we pay for the labor & gas  We call it Totally Free Moving.  You just pack and unpack!

 

When we established Golden Real Estate over 11 years ago, I came up with two mottos for our company which appear on all our yard signs. The mottos also appear on our newest moving truck that we provide free to buyers, sellers and community organizations.

I’ve written more than once about the second motto, “Promoting and Modeling Environmental Responsibility,” but this week I want to focus on the first one, which is “Hometown Service Delivered With Integrity.”

I recall how easily those two value statements came to me back in 2007, and now I can testify as to how we have lived up to both of them in the years since and how important and relevant they feel so many years later.

My own relationship to integrity derives from my New England upbringing and specifically the influence of my somewhat aristocratic father, Abbott Pliny Smith II. Dishonesty or lying had no place in our home. I can still hear Dad telling me, “Just because other people steal apples doesn’t make it right for you to steal apples.”

Dad taught me not to pretend to know things I didn’t know or claim to have experience I did not have.  I recall one instance where following that advice really helped me. It was when I owned a typesetting company in New York called Journal Graphics. Because of my journalism training, I wanted to land the account with WNET to produce the transcripts for The MacNeil/Lehrer Report. But I had no experience with transcription and no current clients.

So I took the approach of actually transcribing one of their shows and delivering the transcript to the station the following morning with a cover letter to the executive producer saying I could do this every night overnight, including printing. A month later I was in the office of the woman in charge of transcripts, and she said, “Yes, and would you like to do Bill Moyers’ Journal, too?”

I responded, “Let me do Bill Moyers’ show first, since it’s a weekly show, and once we’ve got that going smoothly, I’ll do the MacNeil/Lehrer Report, which is daily.” Then she asked if we’d do fulfillment. Without hesitating, I asked her, “What’s fulfillment?” She explained that it involves fulfilling the mailed-in orders. “That sounds very clerical, so I’m sure we could handle it,” I said. She then asked if we’d hire the two elderly volunteers who were doing that job for WNET, and I said, “Sure.”

Within a few years, we were doing all the transcripts for ABC News, Oprah Winfrey (and countless other daytime talk shows), 60 Minutes, CNN 24 hours a day, and all NPR programs. And it all started by demonstrating I could do the job, but also being honest about my lack of experience or clients.  And I didn’t solicit thosse additional clients.  ABC asked WNET, Oprah asked ABC, and the rest called us as Journal Graphics became a household name at the end of those other shows.

Fast forward to my real estate career.  In 2012, mass emails claimed that the Affordable Care Act included a 3.8% sales tax on the sale of every home.  It was an outright distortion of a tax that applied only to investment income and only on Adjusted Gross Income in excess of $200,000 in a given year. The email, which became viral as recipients forwarded it to all their contacts, was designed, using false information, to whip up grass roots hatred of Obama during his 2012 re-election campaign.

Recipients of the email were advised to sell their homes before the tax took effect in January 2013.  The headline on my October 18, 2012, column was, “If You’re Selling Your Home Because of an ‘Obamacare Tax,’ You’ve Been Duped.”

At first, I figured it must be an innocent and unintentional misreading of the law, and I replied “All” to each email with the facts. But facts didn’t matter, and the emails continued in hopes of defeating Obama. This lack of integrity appalled me, but nowadays that lack of integrity is magnified by the use of social media, and the manipulation of voters continues unabated. Does it shock and dismay you as much as it does me?

Another wake-up call for me was that at least one of my own agents who received the mass email did not want to respond to it with the truth because she didn’t want to “be political” and thus alienate prospective clients.

One reason I was drawn to joining Rotary was its “Four-Way Test of the things we think, say or do.”  I have published the Four-Way Test before, but I’ll repeat it here, and I urge you to consider whether certain politicians would pass those tests of the things they think, say or do:

“First, is it the Truth?

Second, is it Fair to All Concerned?

Third, Will it Build Goodwill and Better Friendships?

Fourth, Will it Be Beneficial to All Concerned?”

Boy Scouts can tell you that the Scout Law also includes telling the truth in the first of its 12 laws.

Realtors subscribe to the Realtor Code of Ethics. Article 12 says that “Realtors shall be honest and truthful in their real estate communications and shall present a true picture in their advertising, marketing, and other representations.” Sadly, however, I recently reported on one Realtor whose business model includes misleading homeowners with notes taped to their front door saying “I may have a buyer for your house.” Not only does that Realtor not have a buyer, but he admitted to me that when he gets one, he refers the buyer to another agent and earns a referral fee.

A common lapse of integrity by real estate agents is the exaggeration of their success.  In past columns I have advised readers on how they could verify an agent’s record, and I even created a shortcut, www.FindDenverRealtors.com, which takes readers directly to the page on Denver’s MLS where they can get that information.

So, yes, within my own industry I also confront a lack of integrity.  But Golden Real Estate’s motto is to practice “Hometown Service Delivered With Integrity” and I hold my nine broker associates to that commitment.  Indeed, I can think of four broker associates I fired for reasons related to their lack of integrity.  Please let me know directly if you ever sense that I or one or my broker associates has not lived up to that commitment.

If You’d Like My Political Take…

This column is about real estate, not politics, but, as you might suspect, I have a lot to say about integrity in politics. You’ll find that content at www.JimSmithBlog.com.

 

It was reported last Wednesday that the 11-county Denver metro area real estate market had cooled dramatically in September.  However,  my research of the 5-county metro area on REcolorado.com (Den-ver’s MLS) did not confirm that.

The article, which was based on a market trends report from the local Realtor association, reported that the high-end market had experienced the largest decline, yet I found the opposite to be the case.

Comparing this September to September 2017, sales of homes over $500,000 increased slightly from 989 to 993 in the  5-county metro area. The number of active listings in that price range at the end of September was up 5% from September 2017, at 3,605 vs. 3,434.

The article reported that the number of homes that sold for over $1 million plummeted by 44.4% in September vs. August, but my research indicated that the number of sales was nearly identical to that of September 2017 — 104 vs. 105 sales. The number of active listings was also nearly identical to Sept. 2017 — 860 this year vs. 870 last year. I computed the decline in million-dollar home sales from August of this year at 37.8% for the 5-county metro area. Last year the August-to-September drop was 14%.

The fact is that the summer months this year were significantly hotter than last year, with July and August sales up more than 30% from last year.  I would suggest that what we saw in September was really a return to the levels of last year, not a sign that the seller’s market has ended.

In the sub-$500,000 metro market, we did see a 20.6% decline in sales, from 3,516 in Sept. 2017 to 2,793 this year. Active listings at the end of September were up 12% from 2017, giving buyers more listings from which to choose.

In the 5-county metro area, the median sold price for detached single family homes hit a high of $450,000 in April then declined over the summer to $425,000 in September. This might sound troubling until you realize that, even with the summer slow-down, this represents a 5% increase over September 2017, which also had lower numbers than every month since March 2017.

The median days on market this September for the sub-$500,000 sales was 13, compared to 11 days in September 2017.

Metro area homes priced over $500,000 sold more quickly and for more money than in September 2017 — 19 days vs. 24 days on market, with an increase in median sold price to $630,000 from $618,500 a year ago.

Unlike the single-family homes, condos and townhomes took a little longer to sell this September — 11 days vs. only 7 last year — but the median sales price jumped by 14.7%, from $260,760 to $299,000. This also represented an increase of 2.7% over August 2018.

In conclusion, although our seller’s market may be getting old, reports of its demise are, shall we say, exaggerated.

Now let’s look at Denver statistics

Since “all real estate is local,” I studied the active, under contract and sold statistics for five Denver neighborhoods which I chose for their diversity. At right are two charts, one for last month and the other for September 2017.

Comparing this September’s statistics to those of September 2017, the only neighborhood showing much softening is Barnum, whose huge run-up in values in recent years may have run its course.

 

Now let’s look at Jefferson County.

I also studied the active, under contract and sold statistics for various Jefferson County addresses. At left are the same two charts, one for last month and the other for September 2017.

The most significant change you’ll notice in comparing the two months is that there are notably fewer listings under contract this September compared to September 2017, as well as a decrease in active and sold listings:

 

Last week I documented how our real estate market is showing signs of slowing. In that column I noted an increase in the number of price reductions for metro area listings and compared statistics from this summer with those from last summer, showing how the ratio of sold price to original listing price and the median days on market suggest a slowing in our real estate market.

One reader asked whether prices were also leveling off or falling, so this week I am presenting that data. As documented in the chart below, the answer is pretty obvious — prices have increased from 6.8% to 9.8% year-over-year this summer, and price per square foot has increased from 5.4% to 9.4% year-over-year. That’s comparable to or greater than the increases experienced in previous summers.

That presents an interesting dichotomy. We are not seeing as many quick sales and multiple offers, and we are seeing more price reductions than last year, yet the median sales price is increasing. It’s hard to come up with a reasonable explanation of what’s going on, but I’ll keep working on it!

I’ll be curious to see how market activity and price changes look this coming winter compared to last winter.  In the past I have pointed out (more than once!) that winter can be the best time to sell a home. That’s because there are fewer listings yet lots of buyers are still getting email alerts from the MLS whenever a new listing matches their search criteria. I myself have 60 different clients receiving email alerts based on their different search criteria. You can be sure that when these would-be buyers get an email describing a house they want to see, they will call me to see it — even on Christmas eve or in a snow storm!

That’s the nature of our changed real estate business. Buyers and not their agents are doing their searching and finding online, then asking their agents to set a showing.

Remember: Summer may be the “listing season” in real estate, but there is no one “selling season.”

 

Last week Realty Times, an online news service, had an interesting article that caught our attention. It was about a long-standing law in the District of Columbia that is designed to protect tenants from being displaced when a landlord sells their home, condo or townhouse.

Although only 5% of tenants have been able to exercise the right of first refusal granted by that D.C. law and it has just been modified to exempt some properties in some situations, it presents an interesting concept that could make sense if properly designed.

However, Golden Real Estate has a program that is even better, because we have a buyer who will purchase that home for cash, guaranteeing the tenant the right to stay up to 5 years with pre-specified and reasonable annual rent increases and the opportunity to purchase that home when able. The tenant need only be pre-qualified as a tenant (with a $75 application fee) and does not have to qualify as a buyer.  While the tenant has the right to purchase the home over the next 5 years at specified prices, he also has the right to leave after each one-year term without purchasing the house.

Under this arrangement, if a tenant learns that his house is going on the market and he’s at risk of being given 30 days’ notice to vacate, he/she can call us we’ll set that tenant up with our buyer, Home Partners of America, who will qualify the tenant immediately, then make a cash offer to buy the house, just like any buyer.  Call me at 303-525-1851 to apply.

The home itself has to qualify. It can’t be a condo, and can’t be priced over $550,000.  We function as Home Partners’ agent.