Study of Competitive Neighborhoods Reflects Slowing of Our Real Estate Market in Denver & Jefferson County

Real_Estate_Today_bylineIf you have noticed a slight slowing of our real estate market, you are not alone. My colleagues and I at Golden Real Estate have noticed it too and found some confirmation of that fact by a recent Redfin analysis reported in the Denver Business Journal.

That company reported that in  2017, Denver’s metro area had only one neighborhood among the nation’s top 25 most competitive neighborhoods — and it was ranked #25. By contrast, in 2016,  seven of the top 25 competitive neighborhoods nationwide were in the Denver metro area.

Redfin calculates neighborhoods’ competitiveness “based on several indicators of competition, including the percentage of homes that sold for more than their asking price, how quickly homes went under contract and annual price growth in 2017.”

The Denver neighborhood that made Redfin’s list this year was Athmar Park, east of Federal Blvd. between Alameda and Mississippi. The median sales price there was $310,000, up 17.2% over 2016. The average sale-to-list price ratio, according to Redfin, was 104%, but I calculated that it was 102.7% vs. 101.2% in 2016. Homes there spent an average of just 4 days on the market, down from 6 days in 2016.

Seattle, where Redfin is based, dominated the list with 19 of the 25 most competitive neighborhoods in the nation in 2017.  Let’s assume that’s coincidental!

First, let’s look at Denver statistics (scroll down for Jefferson County):

In the City & County of Denver as a whole, we can quantify the change in the real estate market by looking at the same criteria. Denver’s median sales price ($395,500) rose by 8.2% for 2017 over 2016.  Meanwhile median days on market held steady at 8, and the average sales price was 99.9% of list price, compared to 100.0% in 2016.

What follows is the breakdown of those statistics for various areas within the City & County of Denver:

Homes just west of Athmar Park in West Denver, which I’m defining as between Sheridan and Federal, from 6th Ave. to Yale Ave., had a median sales price of $289,000 in 2017, up 13.7% over 2016. Sold prices averaged 100.7% of listing price, up from 101.5% the year before. Median days on market remained unchanged at 6.

Stapleton remains a really hot market, with a year-over-year increase in median sales price of 19.9%, but homes sold more slowly (median 7 days vs. 6 days), and homes sold, on average, for 100.0% of their list price vs. 100.3% of their list price in 2016. The median sales price in 2017 was $530,750.

Homes in Green Valley Ranch (south of DIA) had a median sales price of $315,000, up 10.8%, but sold quicker (6 days last year vs. 7 days in 2016) and sold for 100.8% of list price, up from 100.6% in 2016.

Homes in Highlands, Berkeley and Sunnyside (between 26th Ave. and I-70, between Sheridan and I-25) had a modest 5.5% increase in median sales price ($523,500 in 2017), with median days on market of 8 days vs. 11 days in 2016, and homes sold for 99.6% of list price, unchanged from 2016.

Homes in Southwest Denver, that hodgepodge of annexed suburban neighborhoods south of Yale Avenue and west of the Platte River, experienced a 6.4% increase in median sales price over 2016. Days on market was 6 (up from 5 in 2016), with homes selling for 100.8% of list price on average, up from 100.7% in 2016. The median sales price here was $329,900.

The Washington Park area, from Alameda Avenue to I-25 between Logan Street and University Blvd., continues its steady rise in values, with a median 2017 sales price of $727,750, which was 7.2% above 2016. Median days on market fell to 8 in 2017, down from 14 days in 2016. The median ratio of sold price to list price was unchanged at 99.4% and has not exceeded 100% over the past five years.

Another high-priced section of Denver that has not exceeded that 100% ratio in the past five years is the North Country Club/Cherry Creek/Hilltop corridor, extending south from 6th Avenue to Cherry Creek and from Logan Street to Monaco Street. The median sales price in 2017 was $867,500, up only 2.1% from 2016. Over the past 5 years, the average ratio of sales price to sold price has never been above 98.4%, and in 2017 it dropped slightly to 98.1%. The days on market dropped slightly from 25 in 2016 to 24 in 2017.

Here are some Jefferson County statistics by area:

In Jefferson County, the median sales price was $389,000, up 8.1% from 2016.  Meanwhile median days on market held steady at 7, and the average sales price was 100.1% of list price, compared to 100.3% in 2016.

Those are countywide figures. Here is the breakdown based on city addresses within Jefferson County, keeping in mind that these are postal addresses, which include unincorporated areas:

Arvada matched the countywide median price ($389,000), also up 8.1%, but median days on market was 8, up from 7 in 2016, and homes sold, on average, for 100.2% of their list price vs. 100.7% of their list price in 2016.

Homes with Golden addresses, meanwhile, experienced a 5% increase in median sales price (to $530,000), with median days on market of 11 vs. 12 days in 2016, and homes sold for 99.4% of list price — unchanged from 2016. Homes within the city limits of Golden had the same median sales price ($530,000), up 2.6% from 2016, but sold quicker (7 days last year vs. 6 days in 2016) and sold for 100.3% of list price, down half a percentage point from 2016.

Wheat Ridge had a median sales price of $386,000, up 5.8% from 2016, with median days on market of 6 vs 7 days in 2016, and homes sold for 100.4% of list price, up from 100.2% in 2016.

Lastly, Lakewood experienced an 8.9% increase in median sales price (to $355,000). Days on market was unchanged at 6, with homes selling for 100.5% of list price on average, also unchanged from 2016.

In conclusion, although the pace of local markets  may not be quite as brisk as we’ve seen recently, it’s clear that we are still in a hot seller’s market. As evidenced by the number of homes that sell above their listed price, we continue to see competing offers,  although fewer of them.

But if I have learned anything about real estate, it’s that it is unpredictable. What I can predict is that Golden Real Estate agents will continue to serve buyers and sellers well, and that I’ll write another column next week!

Author: Golden Real Estate, Inc.

Golden Real Estate is a prominent member of the Denver/Jefferson County real estate scene. Based in Golden, we service both Denver and Jeffco, representing both buyers and sellers. We're well known for Broker Jim Smith's weekly "Real Estate Today" column published in the Denver and Jeffco editions of the Denver Post's YourHub section each Thursday. The column also appears in several weekly newspapers and is archived at www.JimSmithColumns.com. We have nine agents, all of whom are Realtors and EcoBrokers. Our office is solar powered and several of us drive electrics cars. Known for our sustainable practices, we accept polystyrene (aka "Styrofoam") for recycling, keeping 200 cubic yards per year out of area landfills.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s