2017 Home Sales Will Hit Record Again, Despite Reported ‘Low Inventory’

One of the most persistent myths about our real estate market is that not enough people are putting their homes on the market, resulting in “record low inventory.”

Sales_vs_new_listings_-_last_10_years

How, then, since there are so few homes on the market, does one explain that the number of homes sold has set a record every year since 2013? In the chart above, 2017 is shown slightly lower than 2016, but that doesn’t include the 1,387 that closed since the end of November. Also, there are 2,400 listings that have been under contract for more than 30 days, the majority of which are bound to close before Dec. 31st. Another 3,000 listings have been under contract less than 30 days, and many of those will close by Dec. 31st, too.  So, the number of 2017 sold listings will probably end up over 65,000.

Active listings and DOM      How to explain the record number of sales when there are so few active listings? It’s really quite simple. As shown in the table at left, the median days on market (“DOM”) for new listings is less than half what it was five years ago and is showing no signs of rising, which explains why the number of active listings keep declining. What about December? The numbers aren’t in yet, but, judging from the last three years, when median days on market was 16 and 17, you could speculate that half the homes put on the market this week will also be under contract before the end of the 2017.

The statistics I’ve been quoting are for the total metro MLS (REcolorado.com), but Denver and Jefferson County are as hot or hotter.  Denver’s median days on market for November was 14, and Jeffco’s median days on market was 12.

 

Author: Golden Real Estate, Inc.

Golden Real Estate is a prominent member of the Denver/Jefferson County real estate scene. Based in Golden, we service both Denver and Jeffco, representing both buyers and sellers. We're well known for Broker Jim Smith's weekly "Real Estate Today" column published in the Denver and Jeffco editions of the Denver Post's YourHub section each Thursday. The column also appears in several weekly newspapers and is archived at www.JimSmithColumns.com. We have nine agents, all of whom are Realtors and EcoBrokers. Our office is solar powered and several of us drive electrics cars. Known for our sustainable practices, we accept polystyrene (aka "Styrofoam") for recycling, keeping 200 cubic yards per year out of area landfills.

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